「ムーアの法則」ついでに、「Forget Moore's Law」というマイケル・マローンの最新エッセイをご紹介しておこう。
「Forget Moore's law because it is unhealthy. Because it has become our obsession. Because high tech has become fixated on it at the expense of
everything else--especially business strategy. It is precisely this fixation, at the cost of other considerations like profit, product, and market, that led to the dot-com bubble and bust.
Forget Moore's law because there are more important things to worry about--like restoring the lost vitality of the electronics industry. The only people who ought to be obsessing about Moore's law are the folks working in the semiconductor industry, and Gordon Moore himself has suggested that even in the chip business his law hasn't always been a helpful fixation. Lately, some disturbing new trends support his case.
But most of all, forget Moore's law because it has become dangerous. It is a runaway train, roaring down a path to disaster, picking up speed at every turn, and we are now going faster than human beings can endure. If we don't figure out how to get off this train soon, we may destroy an industry.」
「An extraordinary announcement was made a couple of months ago, one that may mark a turning point in the high-tech story.」
「His words were both simple and devastating: when asked how the 64-bit Itanium, the new megaprocessor from Intel and Hewlett-Packard, would
affect Google, Mr. Schmidt replied that it wouldn't. Google had no intention of buying the superchip. Rather, he said, the company intends to build its future servers with smaller, cheaper processors.」
「In essence, what he said was that Google, the hottest young company in technology, had committed the ultimate apostasy: it had declared its independence from Moore's law.」
「"We aren't interested in getting maximum power for a high price,"」
「"What we're looking for is maximum functionality and that's a whole different thing."」
「”When I read the Google announcement," he says, "I understood exactly where Mr. Schmidt was going. This is a fundamental, even revolutionary,
change in the IT world, and most people don't even realize it yet. It's going to be disastrous for a lot of the big companies out there."」
「"The rules of this business are changing fast," Mr. Andreessen says, "When we come out of this downturn, high tech is going to look entirely different."」